Just for fun, I decided that I would make some predictions for the upcoming year. Let me get to it in no particular order, and with no particular agenda.

Artificial Intelligence

With so much news and activity swirling around AI, this is really hard to predict where we are going, especially given the huge changes that have come in 2025. I’m going to make my prediction here that I think is a safe bet, yet I think will be a big deal when it happens – specifically Personalized AI memory. Right now, while we can create and ask for personas to answer specific questions, the place I think AI will make the biggest jumps in improvement will be in having a continued context for every person – basically a memory.

A large part of a person’s value comes from their historical knowledge and experience, creativity in thinking about solutions, and being able to apply these together. AI has the advantage of crowd-sourcing knowledge and solutions, but without a person’s contextual history. The result is that delivered value AI provides is much lower than it could be. Having access to memory in terms of information available from e-mails, documents, chats and meetings transcripts of will make the AI much more useful.

In my estimation, big winners in this space will be whichever companies can leverage this information. Whoever is able to enable secure, contextual memory for individuals, will have a great start at making what could be a great AI digital helper/assistant.

From a first look, I would guess Google/Gemini and Microsoft/OpenAI have the infrastructure to be first movers in this space. But historically they have been slow to move and build. And honestly, with APIs and MCPs being broadly available, the door is really open for a first mover in this space.

Art/Music

In 2026, I expect there to be a top 10 pop music hit. I imagine that the voice, lyrics, music and arrangement will be created with AI. As soon as this happens, there will be a lawsuit claiming that something was stolen from a real life artist.

In the art world, I expect there to be a large public art exhibit of digital AI art. This will be broadly decried by creative artists.

Backlash against AI

Following on the controversy that Art and Music will see, 2026 will start a backlash against AI as people get fed up with AI Slop. Some businesses will advertise “real people” as a competitive advantage over companies that rely on AI. This backlash will be broad, but small across industries. I expect this to grow significantly in the future.

Energy

While “Big Oil” will continue to be back with Trump in charge, the huge change in the energy market will be nuclear. Energy is being required at greater levels for AI capable data centers. Using “green” sources like dams, solar, wind, and geothermal have both significant environmental impacts and are limited. This demand will fuel investment in nuclear energy. My guess is that the current administration will facilitate building and permits, understanding that plants need to be close to completion before the 2028 election and a potentially combative administration.

If I had to make a crazy, out-there guess, I think Elon Musk will start a company to deliver compact nuclear power plants. This aligns with and amplifies his other businesses – energy for cars, power grid, robots, and AI.

Stock Market

People will continue for the rest of 2026 to declare that an AI bubble is going to burst. I don’t expect there to be a major correction until 4-8 months after both OpenAI and Anth2opic actually have their IPOs, which I imagine to be next year.

Medicine

Right to Try will be broadly extended Trump with encouragement by RFK Jr., especially as new procedures to fight cancer are created faster than the FDA can test and approve them. More resistance will be seen from people vaccinating their kids.

Technology

AI-enabling glasses will be the new fad, selling a few million, but will not explode as companies want it to. Long term traction will be restricted by needing a phone for the AI content as well as problems with people losing or breaking their expensive AI glasses. I see a great home for AI glasses in manufacturing and quality control. My bet is that cell enabled watches will become even ubiquitous with expanded AI capabilities.

Facial recognition will start to be demonized in the USA, as it is discovered that more and more criminals are found using open camera infrastructure. Privacy online and in person will become a much bigger deal. Maps and email snooping enabled people’s activities and were seen as helpful. I think people will reject pervasive incursions into their lives such as ad targeting and government/big pharma tracking.

Apple will release a Mac tablet + keyboard that can switch operation modes between iOS and MacOS.

Windows 12/AI will be released and people will hate it being overbearing.

International Politics

More of the world will see populist candidates winning, moving away from candidates supporting UN policies. I expect that Europe and other first world countries will restrict easy immigration from third world countries, except for those with money or high potential.

Physical Access Control

Since this is my business area, I thought I should make a suggestion to where I see the industry moving.  The major driver I see happening in the industry will be a accelerated migration from badge only access control systems, to ones enabling cell phones and watch based mobile credentials along with badges. Many of these will include a second authentication factor using the phone.